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Episode 454: Lend Us Your Listener Emails
Date May 21, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam banter about ejections and the Diamondbacks, then answer listener emails about pitch count histories, career strikeout records, a baseball version of the XFL, and more. Topics * Baseball version of the XFL * Three ball walks * Career strikeout record * Pitcher winless streaks * High school pitch counts * Impact of UCL injuries on everyday people * Youth pitching data Intro The Autumn Defense, "The Answer" Outro Episode outtake sound clip Banter * Episode 452 follow-up: Ejections in cricket * A listener writes in that they think Sam's vocal doppelganger is Seth Meyers. * Webb/Albers update: Ryan Webb finished a game without a save, bringing his career total to 80. * Tony La Russa and the Diamondbacks' new management structure * Madison Bumgarner swung on a 3-0 pitch. Email Questions * Scott: "If Vince McMahon or some other billionaire were going to create an alternative to MLB a la the XFL, what changes should they implement to set it apart that eventually MLB might be forced to co-opt? Perhaps the ABA and its three point line are a better analogy. As a refresher the XFL mandated natural grass, open air stadiums, used an opening scramble instead of a coin flip, banned points after touchdown kicks in favor of 1, 2, and 3 point conversations, and popularized the use of the sky cam. Sometimes in basketball or football an NCAA rule makes so much sense it forces its way into the NBA or NFL, but college baseball has no such influence. So, if there were a baseball version of the XFL what do you think would cross over?" * Matthew: "It seems like a possible blanket solution for the rising strikeout rate, increase in Tommy John surgeries, and longer game time would be to simply award batters a walk on three balls. Theoretically the net effect would be that pitchers would throw with more control and less break, thereby reducing their susceptibility to UCL injuries (maybe), which would mean batters would likely make more contact in thus generate offense. Obviously that's less fun for all six baseball fans who love a pitchers duel but everyone could have their druthers. Shorter plate appearances would also mean shorter games and also the possibility that starters could work further into games, cutting down on the minutia of committee bullpen usage. On the other hand it could also create a scenario where batters treat the 2-0 pitch like they currently treat the 3-0 pitch and never swing, leading to a parade of walks. But there's an argument to be made that 3-0 is essentially a redundant count as swing rate is so low that the batter either walks, which he could have done after the 2-0, or takes a strike and basically returns the at bat to its prior state of 2-0 where he's more likely to swing in which case batters would probably swing more overall leading to a decline of walks. Would removing a ball from the count cause an increase or decrease in walks? Why wouldn't it work? Please shoot holes in my theory." * James (Sarasota, FL): "Reggie Jackson still holds the career record for batter strikeouts with 2,597. How many currently active major leaguers will surpass that total?" * Paul (Los Angeles, CA): response to a recent high school start where a pitcher threw 194 pitches in 14 innings "You both seem like even keeled people who would not want to cross boundaries or embarrass a hypothetical high school kid. If you're watching that and happen to be charting pitches at how many pitches would a kid have to throw before either of you said it has to stop and you just force the issue? Is it before 194 or after?" * Bobby: "What does it mean for someone's non baseball life prospects if they blow out their UCL? Is their arm never the same, or useless for the rest of their life? Or does it mean that they just can't be an elite pitcher anymore?" * Paul (Los Angeles, CA): "Amateur arm abuse and the recent run of major league injuries got me thinking, how would a major league team react if a potential draftees family handed them a folder with pitch counts of every start they've made since little league? Or maybe junior high. It'd be like a Carfax report. Maybe it even has things like weather and days of rest listed. Do they think the family is crazy and neg the kid because of this? Do they appreciate it and get excited? Does this data not matter to them at all? Also has this already happened? Some parents are paying 10s of thousands of dollars for travel baseball, how could that not have happened when that exists?" Play Index * Sam looks at various stats related to winless streaks by pitchers since 1988. * Two pitchers, Jose De Leon and Jarred Cosart, have streaks of 9 winless starts with an ERA under 2.25. Jeff Samardzija currently has a 12 game winless streak with a 2.03 ERA. * Fernando Valenzuela had a streak of 19 consecutive winless starts with an ERA under 5.00. Ryan Dempster had a 17 game winless streak with an ERA under 3.5. Notes * Several listeners wrote in with information about ejections in cricket. There are far fewer arguable calls in cricket, and almost no ejections. Argumentative behavior is frowned upon in the sport. * Sam proposes the idea that a home run is worth more if your team is trailing, to help close scoring gaps quicker. Another idea is to start every at-bat with a 1-1 count. Ben would like teams to be full connected in game such as using headsets, full scouting reports, communication with the front office, etc. * Sam suggests that a walk or strikeout could happen when one part of the count is two pitches away from the other. So, a 2-0 or 3-1 count would be a walk, and a 0-2 count could be a strikeout. * Ben & Sam think Adam Dunn and Justin Upton are the only two players with a chance to beat Reggie Jackson's strikeout record. * Sam thinks "real baseball" begins in 1988. * Ben says that the winless starts streak is "not as compelling as the great Webb/Albers race". Sam responds, "Well Ben I don't find you as compelling as you used to be either." Links * Effectively Wild Episode 454: Lend Us Your Listener Emails Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes